Thù vặt
Tháng Năm năm nay, Trung Quốc tuyên bố đánh thuế lúa làm bia của Úc. Vài hôm sau, Trung Quốc ngưng nhập cảng thịt bò từ Úc. Vào tháng Sáu, Trung Quốc khuyên dân họ không nên đi du lịch sang Úc, kế đến chúng khuyên các du học sinh đừng trở lại Úc vì sẽ bị kỳ thị. Chúng chưa chịu ngưng ở đây, hôm chúng muốn điều tra rượu đỏ của Úc bán hạ giá cho chúng.
Đây là những đồn đánh kinh tế Úc khi đại dịch Vũ Hán đang lan tràng khắp nơi và Úc cùng các nước trên thế giới cùng nhau muốn tìm ra nguyên gốc của con vi trùng nầy. Thêm vào đó trong tháng Bảy, Úc, Mỹ và Nhật cùng nhau tập trận trên biển Đông chứng minh Biển Đông là biển chung của Đông Nam Á, không chỉ riêng của Trung Cộng mà bấy lâu nay như chúng lộng hành, từng tuyên bố.
Đây là những đồn thù vặt, trò chơi hạ cấp mặc dù chúng từng hô hào là một trong những cường quốc trên thế giới.
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How China hit Australian barley, then beef and now eyes our wine
ABC Rural / By national rural reporter Kath Sullivan
19-08-2020
First it was barley, then beef and now wine.
China has Australian exporters in a spin over allegations they sold wine below the cost of production.
While the Australian Government, winemakers and farmers deny any wrongdoing, could there be more to the latest bump in Australia's rocky relationship with our largest trading partner?
How much Australian wine does China buy?
A lot.
According to Wine Australia, there are 52 million people in China who regularly drink imported wine, making it one of the most valuable markets in the world.
The market is largely driven by the young and increasingly affluent, who have developed a taste for premium red wine.
Last year, China bought $1.2 billion worth of Australian wine — or more than one-third of Australia's wine exports by value.
For the year to March, it worked out to be about 130 million litres.
Why has China made this announcement now?
China's decision to launch an investigation into allegations that Australia dumped wine, or sold it below the cost of production, comes as Australia's relationship with China is already in the deep-freeze.
In May, China announced huge tariffs on Australian-grown barley typically used to make beer.
That decision was also based on claims of dumping and essentially priced Australian farmers out of the lucrative market.
Then just days later, China slapped a suspension on exports from four Australian abattoirs selling beef to China for not meeting labelling requirements.
Publicly, Australian politicians are playing a straight bat and say the incidents are not linked to broader political tensions.
But earlier in the year, China's ambassador to Australia warned that Chinese consumers could boycott Australian exports because of Canberra's push for an independent inquiry into the coronavirus outbreak.
About a third of Australia's agriculture exports are sold into China, and Australian farmers haven't been this reliant on a single market since the 1950s, so exporters are nervous.
Australian Grape and Wine chief executive Tony Battaglene said he was surprised by China's decision to launch the investigation.
"We thought this had all calmed down, but we do know the Chinese industry that made the complaint to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has been struggling in a COVID world," Mr Battaglene said.
What happens next?
China is expected to report back on the allegations that Australia dumped wine next August, although that deadline could be extended to February 2022.
Initially, Australian wine exporters will be asked to complete "questionnaires" for Chinese authorities, regarding the cost of production, export volumes and marketing.
Trade Minister Simon Birmingham, who described the dumping allegation as troubling, was keen to point out that wine sold into China in the first half of this year was the second-highest-priced wine sold into that market.
"We dismiss these perplexing allegations that somehow Australian wine is dumped onto the Chinese market or sold below market or cost rates," Senator Birmingham said.
He was basically saying the wine was so expensive, that if it equated to dumping, Australian winemakers clearly aren't very good at making wine.
Should China find Australia has a case to answer to, the matter could be referred to the World Trade Organization in a dispute likely not to be resolved for years.
But there's also the looming threat of another investigation.
Senator Birmingham said the Australian Government was advised that China was considering "launching countervailing duties in relation to Australian wine" — an investigation to determine if wine exporters benefitted from government subsidies.
It was a similar allegation that partially led to the barley tariffs, but the Government denies Australian farmers are subsidised.
In the meantime, Australian farmers will continue to trade with China, and explore emerging export markets.
When it comes to Australian wine, demand is surging in Denmark, Indonesia and Singapore.
Does this announcement mean there will there be a glut of Australian wine?
No, not necessarily and at least not soon.
China has given itself 12 to 18 months to report back on the allegations, over which time you might expect new export markets to open up for Australian exporters.
Despite a fall in the value of wine exports earlier this year, likely due to COVID-19, China still has a great thirst for Australian wine and there are indications that demand has been growing as China's economy recovers.
Trade conditions under the China Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) are still favourable and since 2019 there has been no tariff applied to Australian wine sold into China.
Also, keep in mind Australian winemakers have had a shocker lately. Between the drought, bushfires and other extreme weather events, this year's wine grape crush was the smallest in 13 years.
Is Australia in a trade war with China?
The official word from the Government is no, Australia is not in a trade war with China.
"Australia is certainly not engaging in any type of war," Senator Birmingham said.
Despite not being able to get his Chinese counterpart on the phone for months now, Senator Birmingham continues to say he believes the two countries can work together in areas of mutual interest.
Jeff Wilson, who has been studying Australia's trade with China as the research director at the Perth USAsia centre, had a slightly different take.
"Semantically speaking, a trade war requires two sides to exchange sanctions, this is more like a trade bashing," Dr Wilson said.
While the Government publicly professes that it does not want a trade war, there's a growing sense of frustration within Government at the steady drip feed of sanctions out of China.
